Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. The same can be said of the directional model with intensity. [15] Then we'll look at the space theories of the vote. A distinction can be made between the simple proximity model, which is the Downs model, and the proximity model with Grofman discounting. This model predicts a convergence of party program positions around two distinct positions, there are two types of convergence. This is the idea of collective action, since our own contribution to an election or vote changes with the number of other citizens who vote. There have been attempts to address this anomaly. Maximizing utility is done in proximity to certain issues. As part of spatial theories of the vote, some theories consider the characteristics of candidates. In short, it is an explanatory model that emphasizes the role of political attitudes. There are a whole host of typologies in relation to issues, and we distinguish different types of issues such as position issues and issues that are more or less emotional. The Psychology of Voting Research suggests that instilling emotions like gratitude and civic pride may help increase voter turnout. It is also possible to add that the weight of partisan identification varies from one voter to another. This model emphasizes the role of integration into social groups. Downs, Anthony. These two proximity models are opposed to two other models that are called directional models with Matthews' simple directional model but especially Rabinowitz's directional model with intensity. There are two variations. What voters perceive are directional signals, that is, voters perceive that some parties are going in one direction and other parties are going in another direction on certain issues. From that point on, there has been the development of a whole body of literature on political psychology. This creates a concern for circularity of reasoning. There has been a lot of criticism that has allowed the idea of issue voting to develop in a rationalist context and models. In other words, when we are interested in trying to explain the vote, we must already know what type of voter we are talking about. In the study of electoral behaviour, there is a simple distinction between what is called prospective voting and retrospective voting. That is why there are many empirical analyses that are based on this model. HUr0c:*+ $ifrh b98ih+I?v1q7q>. Thus, voters find it easier to assess performance than declared plans during an election campaign. Webgain. In this case, there may be other factors that can contribute to the voter choice; and all parties that are on the other side of the neutral point minimize the voter's utility, so the voter will not vote for that party all other things being equal. This idea of an issue was not invented by the proponents of the economic model of voting but was already present in the psycho-sociological model. By finding something else, he shaped a dominant theory explaining the vote. The first one Is what we call the sociological model that was presented in the 1940s by a group of scholars from Columbia. Stock Exchanges Publish Clawback Proposals As required by Rule 10D-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), the New York Stock So there is this empirical anomaly where there is a theory that presupposes and tries to explain the electoral choices but also the positions of the parties in a logic of proximity to the centre of the political spectrum, but on the other hand there is the empirical observation that is the opposite and that sees parties and voters located elsewhere. These are some of the criticisms and limitations often made by proponents of other approaches. On the other hand, the focus is on the political goals of the voters, whereas the psychological model puts a little more emphasis on the social use of the vote. Voters try to maximize their individual utility. Many researchers have criticised the Downs proximity model in particular. Pp. There is an opposite reasoning. The directional model also provides some answers to this criticism. Personality traits and party identification over time. They find that partisan identification becomes more stable with age, so the older you get, the more partisan identification you have, so it's much easier to change when you're young. Often identified as School of While Downs said that there are parties that take positions on issues, the voter has difficulty with this inferring a position on a left-right axis. is partisan identification one-dimensional? Other researchers have tried to propose combined models that combine different explanations. A third criticism of the simple proximity model is the idea of the median voter, which is the idea that all voters group around the centre, so parties, based on this observation, will maximize their electoral support at the centre, and therefore if they are rational, parties will tend to be located more at the centre. In other words, there is a social type variable, a cultural type variable and a spatial type variable. . The voters have to make that assessment and then decide which one brings more income and which one we will vote for. The idea is that there is something easier to evaluate which is the ideology of a party and that it is on the basis of this that the choice will be made. The simple proximity model is that the voter will vote for the party or parties that are in the same direction. Furthermore, "social characteristics determine political preferences". The cause-and-effect relationship is reversed, according to some who argue that this is a problem at the empirical level when we want to study the effect of partisan identification on electoral choice because there is a problem of endogeneity; we no longer know what explains what. In Switzerland, the idea of an issue is particularly important because there is direct democracy, which is something that by definition is based on issues. When the voter is in the same position, i.e. In Personality traits and party identification over time published in 2014 by Bakker, Hopmann and Persson, the authors attempt to explain partisan identification. emotional ties between voters and parties; a phase of political misalignment (2), which may be the one we are currently in in Europe since the economic crisis, which is a weakening of partisan loyalties resulting in increased electoral volatility, i.e. Even if there is still a significant effect of identification, there are other explanations and aspects to look for, particularly in terms of the issue vote and the assessments that different voters make of the issue vote. The country has Therefore, they cannot really situate where the different parties stand. For some, these are theories that offer reflections on the proper functioning of democracy, on presuppositions, the role of information or the role of citizens for the proper functioning of democracy and the role of parties. This is the basic motivation for the development of these directional models. The publication of The American Voter in 1960 revolutionized the study of American voting behavior. Value orientations refer to materialism as well as post-materialism, among other things, cleavages but no longer from a value perspective. About a quarter of the electorate votes in this way. It's believed that the social class was the most accurate indicator of likely voting intention. The theory of partisan competition was completely eliminated by the other types of explanations. Comparative Political Studies, 27(2), 155189. On the other hand, ideologically extreme voters try to influence party policies through party activism (voice). This is called the proximity model. Pages pour les contributeurs dconnects en savoir plus. Prospective voting is based on election promises and retrospective voting is based on past performance. They try to elaborate a bit and find out empirically how this happens. It is quite interesting to see the bridges that can be built between theories that may seem different. One possible strategy to reduce costs is to base oneself on ideology. "The answer is "yes", as postulated by spatial theories, or "no", as stated by Przeworski and Sprague, for example. WebThis model of voting behavior sees the voter as thinking individual who is able to take a view on political issues and votes accordingly. This is the proximity model. The concept and measurement of partisan identification as conceived by these researchers as applying to the bipartite system and therefore needs to be adapted to fit the multiparty and European system. For Przeworski and Sprague, there may be another logic that is not one of maximizing the electorate in the short term but one of mobilizing the electorate in the medium and long term. The Peoples Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. This is especially important when applying this type of reasoning empirically. Webthe earlier Columbia studies, the Michigan election studies were based upon national survey samples. From the point of view of parties and candidates, the economic model and in particular the model that was proposed by Downs in 1957 and which predicts a convergence of a party position towards the centre. This is the median voter theory. Some have another way of talking about convergences and showing how the theories explaining the vote can be reconciled with the process of political misalignment. There is this curvilinear disparity because the three actors position themselves differently. The limitations are the explanation of partisan identification, which is that the model has been criticized because it explains or does not explain too much about where partisan identification comes from except to say that it is the result of primary socialization. We have seen that at Downs, the role of ideology is fundamental and that ideology could function as a kind of shortcut. The utility function of this model is modified compared to the simple model, i.e. voters who follow a systematic vote are voters who are willing to pay these information or information-related costs. The theories that are supposed to explain the electoral choice also explain at the same time the electoral participation in particular with the sociological model. Political Behaviour: Historical and methodological benchmarks, The structural foundations of political behaviour, The cultural basis of political behaviour, PEOPLE'S CHOICE: how the voter makes up his mind in a presidential campaign, https://doi.org/10.1177/000271624926100137, https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414094027002001, https://baripedia.org/index.php?title=Theoretical_models_of_voting_behaviour&oldid=49464, Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0). These models describe how humans react to environmental factors and choose between different courses of action. A distinction must be made between the affective vote of the psycho-sociological model and the cognitive vote of the theories of the economic model. Theoretically, it is possible to have as many dimensions as there are issues being discussed in an election campaign. Bakker, B. N., Hopmann, D. N., & Persson, M. (2014). That is called the point of indifference. 0000003292 00000 n We have to be careful, because when we talk about political psychology, we include that, but we also include the role of cognitions and rationality. On the other hand, in rationalist approaches, shortcuts are cognitive shortcuts. We are not ignoring the psychological model, which focuses on the identification people have with parties without looking at the parties. WebThe Michigan model is a theory of voter choice, based primarily on sociological and party identification factors. Merrill, Samuel, and Bernard Grofman. Moreover, there are analogies that are made even explicitly with the idea of the market. The second criterion is subjectivity, which is that voters calculate the costs and benefits of voting subjectively, so they make an assessment of the costs and benefits. Prospective voting says that voters will listen to what candidates and parties have to say. An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy. Journal of Political Economy, vol. On the other hand, preferences for candidates in power are best explained by the proximity model and the simple directional model. All parties that are in the same direction of the voter maximize the individual utility of that voter. Often, in Anglo-Saxon literature, this model is referred to as the party identification model. 43 0 obj <> endobj The idea is that the extremist attitudes of those former voters who become party activists push strategic positioning in a direction that takes them away from their constituents. The basic assumptions of the economic model of the vote are threefold: selfishness, which is the fact that voters act according to their individual interests and not according to their sense of belonging to a group or their attachment to a party. This theory is not about the formation of political preferences, they start from the idea that there are voters with certain political preferences and then these voters will look at what the offer is and will choose according to that offer. 0000007835 00000 n The strategies and shortcuts are mainly used by citizens who are interested in going to vote or in an election but who do not have a strong preference beforehand. 59 0 obj <>stream A second possible answer is that they will vote for the candidate who belongs to the party with which they identify. One can draw a kind of parallel with a loss of importance of the strength of partisan identification and also of the explanatory power of partisan identification. The choice of candidates is made both according to direction but also according to the intensity of positions on a given issue. Hence the creation of the political predisposition index which should measure and capture the role of social insertion or position in explaining electoral choice. It is a model that is very close to data and practice and lends itself very easily to empirical testing through measures of partisan identification and different measures of socio-demographic factors among others. Today, there is an attempt to combine the different explanations trying to take into account, both sociological determinants but also the emotional and affective component as well as the component related to choice and calculation. There is a whole literature on opinion formation, quite consensually, that says that citizens have a limited capacity to process information. xxxiii, 178. This jargon comes from this type of explanation. A distinction is often made between two types of voters and votes between the: There are these two types and a whole literature on the different types of euristics that can be set up. To study the expansion of federal authority over states. WebVoting: A Behavioral Analysis Max Visser University of Twente ABSTRACT: The behavior of voting for a party in an election has important social implications, yet, due to strong Grofman's idea is to say that the voter discounts what the candidates say (discounting) based on the difference between current policy and what the party says it will do or promise. The explanatory factors and aspects highlighted by these different models are always taken into account. WebThe politics of Colombia take place in a framework of a presidential representative democratic republic, whereby the President of Colombia is both head of state and head of government, So, we are going to the extremes precisely because we are trying to mobilize an electorate. Today, when we see regression analyses of electoral choice, we will always find among the control variables social status variables, a religion variable and a variable related to place of residence. trailer those who inquire: they are willing to pay these costs. The idea is to see what are all the factors that explain the electoral choice. The function of partisan identification is to allow the voter to face political information and to know which party to vote for. From the perspective of the issue vote, there are four main ways to explain how and why voters are going to vote a certain way and why parties are going to position themselves. The psycho-sociological model, also known as the Michigan model, can be represented graphically or schematically. It has often been emphasized that this model and approach raises more questions than answers. A Democrat votes for Democratic candidates for all elected offices, and Republicans do the same. In general, they are politically more sophisticated and better educated; those who rely on the opinion of the media and opinion leaders; that of the law of curvilinear disparity proposed by May; the directional model of Rabinowitz and Matthews; Przeworski and Sprague's mobilization of the electorate. In other words, the voters' political preferences on different issues, in other words, in this type of theorizing, they know very well what they want, and what is more, these positions are very fixed and present when the voter is going to have to vote. The extent to which the usefulness of voters' choices varies from candidate to candidate, but also from voter to voter. In other words, a directional element is introduced into the proximity model. The initial formation of this model was very deterministic in wanting to focus on the role of social inclusion while neglecting other aspects, even though today there is increasingly a kind of ecumenical attempt to have an explanation that takes into account different aspects. While in the United States, several studies have shown that partisan identification is an important explanatory power on electoral choice, in other contexts this is less true. It is a theory that makes it possible to explain both the voting behaviour of voters and the organisational behaviour of political parties. A third possible answer is that they will vote for the candidate whose political ideas are closest to their own. Candidate choices are made towards parties or candidates who are going in the same direction as the voter, this being understood as the voters' political preferences on a given issue. It is no longer a question of explaining "why" people participate but "how", that is, in terms of voter turnout, what choice is made and what can explain an electoral choice. In this theory, we vote for specific issues that may be more or less concrete, more or less general, and which form the basis for explaining electoral behaviour. If we take into account Przeworski and Sprague's idea that preferences are exogenous and not endogenous, it is possible to create a typology as Iversen did. The idea of the directional model, and this applies to both the simple directional model and the intensity directional model, is that voters basically cannot clearly perceive the different positions of political parties or candidates on a specific issue. Fiorina's theory of retrospective voting is very simple. WebVoting behavior pertains to the actions or inactions of citizens in respect of participating in the elections that take place for members of their local, regional, or national governments. This is a very common and shared notion. Grofman introduces a central element which is the position of the status quo which is not necessarily the neutral point but the current policy. There has also been the emergence of empirical criticisms which have shown that the role of partisan identification has tended to decrease sharply and therefore an increase in the role of the issues and in particular the role of the cognitive evaluation that the actors make in relation to certain issues. The answer to this second question will allow us to differentiate between proximity models and directional models because these two subsets of the spatial theories of voting give diametrically opposite answers to this question. There are two slightly different connotations. The law of curvilinear disparity takes up this distinction. IVERSEN, T. (1994). However, we see that this is not always true and that there are parties that propose more extreme policies that receive considerable electoral support. Prospective voting says that the evaluation is based on what the parties and candidates are going to say. What determines direction? At the aggregate level, the distribution of partisan identification in the electorate makes it possible to calculate the normal vote. This table shows that for quite some time now there has been a strong decline in partisan identification. What we are interested in is on the demand side, how can we explain voters' electoral choice. This model leaves little room for the ideology which is the idea that by putting so much emphasis on the emotional voter and feelings, it leaves little room for the ideology that is central to explaining the economic model of the vote. The role of the media and campaigns simplifies information by summarizing it. European Journal of Political Research, 54(2), 197215. 0000007057 00000 n There are three actors at play in this theory: there are voters, candidates, and an intermediate group represented by activists who are in fact voters who become activists going to exercise "voice". The concept of electoral choice does not belong to the sociological model but rather to rationalist theories. WebThe three widely accepted behavioral models of voter choice are: the sociological model, the social-psychological model, and the rational choice model. This task is enormous, and only a modest beginning can be made here. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 261(1), 194194. A first criticism that has been made is that the simple proximity model gives us a misrepresentation of the psychology of voting. Cambridge New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999. Partisan attachment is at the centre of the graph influencing opinions on certain issues being discussed or the attitudes of certain candidates. The aspect is based on the idea that there is an information problem that represents a difficulty and costs that voters must pay to gather information and to become informed about an election. These are possible answers more to justify and account for this anomaly. Hinich and Munger say the opposite, saying that on the basis of their idea of the left-right positioning of the parties, they somehow deduce what will be or what is the position of these parties on the different issues. There have been several phases of misalignment. It is a small bridge between different explanations. We often talk about economic theory of the vote in the broadest sense in order to designate a rationalist theory based on rational choice theory and spatial theories of the vote. This is something that remains difficult in theory, we don't know how much the voter will discount. There are two important issues in relation to the spatial theory of voting. Some parties have short-term strategies for maximizing voting and others have long-term strategies for social mobilization. In other words, party activists tend to be more extreme in their political attitudes than voters or party leaders. The idea is that voters are not really able to really evaluate in a forward-looking way the different positions of the parties. (1949). JSTOR. Symbols evoke emotions. Applied to the electorate, this means no longer voting for one party and going to vote for another party. With regard to the question of how partisan identification develops, the psycho-sociological model emphasizes the role of the family and thus of primary socialization, but several critics have shown that secondary socialization also plays a role. Gelman, A, Hill, J (2007) Data Analysis using Regression and Multilevel Hierarchical Models. For example, there is Lazarsfeld's theory with the idea that opinion leaders can be seen as people to whom we attribute a strong trust and maybe even an esteem in relation to the political judgment they may have and therefore, by discussing with these people, it is possible to form an electoral choice and therefore there is no need to go and pay these costs of gathering information. maximum proximity, as the party, his or her utility increases, and when the voter moves away from the party, his or her utility decreases. The economic model has put the rational and free citizen back at the centre of attention and reflection, whereas if we push the sociological model a bit to the extreme, it puts in second place this freedom and this free will that voters can make since the psycho-sociological model tells us that voting is determined by social position, it is not really an electoral choice that we make in the end but it is simply the result of our social insertion or our attachment to a party. We must also, and above all, look at the links between types of factors. We see the kinship of this model with the sociological model explaining that often they are put together. In other words, they propose something quite ecumenical that combines directional and proximity models. changes in voting behaviour from one election to the next. The further a party moves in the other direction, the less likely the voter will choose it because the utility function gradually decreases. There are also intermediate variables that relate to loyalties to a certain group or sense of belonging. This is a fairly reasonable development, as is the discounting model, whose proximity was something reasonable and which makes the model more consistent with reality. The idea that one identifies oneself, that one has an attitude, an attachment to a party was certainly true some forty years ago and has become less and less true and also the explanatory power of this variable is less important today even if there are significant effects. How was that measured? however, voter turnout was below the fifty percent threshold, so the results were considered void. Others have criticized this analogy between the economic market and the political market as being a bit simplistic, saying that, basically, the consequences of buying a consumer product have a certain number of consequences, but they are much more limited compared to what buying a vote can have in terms of choosing a party. In the psychological approach, the information problem is circumvented by the idea of the development of partisan identification, which is an emotional shortcut that voters operate. On the basis of this, we can know. 0000000929 00000 n Below we evaluate models that use these types of measures as well. More specifically, the costs that the voter has to take into account according to the different parties and candidates must be evaluated, which is the partisan differential, i.e. Some people talk about membership voting for the first two theories and cognitive voting for the economic model of voting. When we talk about the Downs model, we also talk about the proximity model, which is the idea of a rational economic mode based on utility maximization. They are voters who make the effort to inform themselves, to look at the proposals of the different parties and try to evaluate the different political offers. The economic model of the vote puts the notion of electoral choice back at the centre. There is a direct link between social position and voting. Contenu disponible en Franais Contenido disponible en espaol Contenuto disponibile in italiano, The distinction between the three main explanatory models of voting is often found. Those with a lower sense of Regarding the causal ambiguity, there are also critics who say that this approach is very strongly correlational in the sense that it looks for correlations between certain social variables and electoral choices, but the approach does not explain why this variable approach really has a role and therefore what are the causal mechanisms that lead from insertion, positions, social predispositions to electoral choice. 1960 revolutionized the study of electoral behaviour, there is a theory that it..., a, Hill, J ( 2007 ) Data Analysis using Regression and Multilevel models... 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